skip to main content
Resource type Show Results with: Show Results with: Index

Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a method to deal with outdated accident prediction models.

Hirst, W. M. ; Mountain, L. J. ; Maher, M. J.

Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a method to deal with outdated accident prediction models. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 36 (5\). pp. 717-727

2004

Link to full text

Citations Cited by
  • Title:
    Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a method to deal with outdated accident prediction models.
  • Author/Creator: Hirst, W. M. ; Mountain, L. J. ; Maher, M. J.
  • Creation Date: 2004
  • Is Part Of: Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a method to deal with outdated accident prediction models. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 36 (5\). pp. 717-727
  • Description: This paper considers the errors that arise in using outdated accident prediction models in road safety scheme evaluation. Methods to correct for regression-to-mean (RTM) effects in scheme evaluation normally rely on the use of accident prediction models. However, because accident risk tends to decline over time, such models tend to become outdated and the estimated treatment effect is then exaggerated. A new correction procedure is described which can effectively eliminate such errors.